TY - JOUR T1 - Airborne Pollen Samples for Early-Season Estimates of Wine Production in a Mediterranean Climate Area of Northern Portugal JF - American Journal of Enology and Viticulture JO - Am J Enol Vitic. SP - 189 LP - 194 DO - 10.5344/ajev.2003.54.3.189 VL - 54 IS - 3 AU - Mário Cunha AU - Ilda Abreu AU - Pedro Pinto AU - Rogério de Castro Y1 - 2003/01/01 UR - http://www.ajevonline.org/content/54/3/189.abstract N2 - A forecast model for estimating the annual variation in regional wine production has been developed over the past decade for the main wine regions of northern Portugal. Annual wine production has been forecasted based on a hierarchical analysis, including a determination of potential production by measuring airborne pollen concentrations at flowering with Cour traps followed by an evaluation of the possible impact of postflowering conditions on limited crop production. For each region, airborne pollen concentrations, in conjunction with wine yield, account for up to 90 to 95% of the interannual variations in wine production. Ninety-seven to 99% of the annual variability in regional wine production can be explained by agropalynoclimatological forecast models that take into account a number of agronomic and weather conditions after flowering. The reliability and early-indication ability of these forecast models justify their use by institutions and economists in decision making, adoption of technical improvements, and fraud detection.Acknowledgments: The authors thank L. Ferreira, F. Alves, P. Costa, A. Faria, V. Pedroso, T. Mota, A. Maria, and C. Almeida for technical assistance with the pollen sampling. Work financed from the CCR-Ispra project MARS (1992-1997) and AGRO project medida 8.1. ER -