A 3-year study was carried out on the effects of time and temperature on the concentration of ethyl carbamate in wine. The study monitored the changing concentration of ethyl carbamate and of urea and citrulline, which are two major precursors of ethyl carbamate in wine. In addition to the formation of ethyl carbamate, both urea and citrulline decayed in other reactions. Kinetic analysis was carried out to model the formation of ethyl carbamate and its dependence on the concentrations of ethanol, urea and citrulline. This led to the development of an equation that can be used to predict the concentration of ethyl carbamate in wine at the point of consumption, resulting from any given storage time and temperature profile. The results were in good agreement with data obtained from similar studies.