Statistical Techniques for Wine Consumption Forecasting and Forecasts for 1990 and 2000

Abstract

The US wine market has experienced a slow but steady long-term growth in wine consumption. The per capita wine consumption increased from .30 gallons in 1935 to 1.287 gallons in 1970, and to 2.21 gallons in 1982. During this time, US consumers have shifted their preference towards table wines. By 1982, table wines constituted 77.5% of all wine consumed, as compared to 29.4% in 1955. The forecasting technique utilized in this study estimated the consumption levels on an individual state basis rather than the aggregate US level. Also, the technique explicitly forecasted the level of US-produced table wine consumption. In forecasting the wine consumption for 1990 and 2000, two per capita income series were used to present optimistic and pessimistic projections. The forecasted per capita consumption levels for all wine in 1990 and 2000 for the optimistic projection are 3.310 and 4.427 gallons, respectively; pessimistic projections are 2.784 and 3.636 gallons for 1990 and 2000, respectively. The forecasted total consumption level in 1990 is 856.1 million gallons and in 2000 is 1214.4 million gallons for the optimistic scenario. The pessimistic projection for 1990 is 688.7 million gallons and 941.0 million gallons for 2000. The per capita consumption of US-produced table wines is projected to be 2.852 gallons in 1990 and 4.118 gallons in 2000 for the optimistic projection. For 1990, the pessimistic projection is 2.040 gallons and 3.062 gallons in 2000. The projected total consumption of US-produced table wine is 747.5 and 1126.7 million gallons in 1990 and 2000, respectively, for the optimistic projection. The pessimistic projected total consumption is 510.3 and 765.7 million gallons in 1990 and 2000, respectively. These consumption levels represent a higher proportion of US-produced table wine to all wine than has existed in the past.