Airborne Pollen Samples for Early-Season Estimates of Wine Production in a Mediterranean Climate Area of Northern Portugal

Abstract

A forecast model for estimating the annual variation in regional wine production has been developed over the past decade for the main wine regions of northern Portugal. Annual wine production has been forecasted based on a hierarchical analysis, including a determination of potential production by measuring airborne pollen concentrations at flowering with Cour traps followed by an evaluation of the possible impact of postflowering conditions on limited crop production. For each region, airborne pollen concentrations, in conjunction with wine yield, account for up to 90 to 95% of the interannual variations in wine production. Ninety-seven to 99% of the annual variability in regional wine production can be explained by agropalynoclimatological forecast models that take into account a number of agronomic and weather conditions after flowering. The reliability and early-indication ability of these forecast models justify their use by institutions and economists in decision making, adoption of technical improvements, and fraud detection.