Use of Cordon Wire Tension for Static and Dynamic Prediction of Grapevine Yield

Abstract

An automated system was used during three growing seasons to monitor the change in tension (ΔT) in the load-bearing wire of a trellis to estimate yield in vineyards. Actual yield varied nearly four-fold among the three study years, but in each year the fruit was uniformly distributed along the length of the wire. The automated sensor detected sequential harvests up to ~12 m to either side of the sensor, or 24 m total wire length, in a nonlinear fashion. Yield was predicted statically from ΔT at the lag phase (L) of berry growth (ΔT_L) and dynamically from continuous output of ΔT. Relationships between ΔT_L and yield were linear. Estimated yield was not sensitive to the date of ΔT_L, within 10 days. In using the ratio between the current year ΔT and that of a specific previous year, the differences between estimated and observed yields depended upon the choice of predictor year(s), where years with similar ΔT were the most accurate. Across an estimation interval of L to harvest, the precision of dynamic estimates was determined by the similarity in the day-to-day shapes of the double-logistic curves of ΔT over time. Due to a catastrophic frost in the second year of the study, an extremely small crop and an uncharacteristic growth curve made it difficult to predict yield either statically or dynamically. In practice, the method requires a grower to collect multiple years of growth curves from which to build a robust linear relationship between ΔT_L and yield (static estimates), or to apply an average of multiple years’ ΔT values dynamically.