Climatic Niche Characterization of 13 North American Vitis Species

Abstract

Climate change models predict that sites suitable for vineyards will shift over the next 50 years. In part through rootstocks and hybrid scions bred from North American Vitis species, cultivated grapevines can thrive in a variety of environments. However, relatively little is known about the range of climatic conditions under which natural populations of native North American Vitis species occur. In this study, we use geographic information system data to describe the climatic niches of 13 North American Vitis species that are distributed east of the Rocky Mountains and to compare climatic niches in a phylogenetic context. We extracted bioclimatic data from thousands of locality points and performed univariate and multivariate statistical analyses for each Vitis species. We then used these data to determine if phylogenetic relatedness was associated with similarities or differences in climatic niches. Finally, we performed Maxent modeling and multivariate environmental similarity surfaces analysis to identify suitable climate space for each species throughout the United States. Our results indicate Vitis species occur under a wide range of climatic conditions, including warm and wet (V. shuttleworthii), warm and dry (V. mustangensis), cold and wet (V. labrusca), and cold and dry (V. riparia) climates. Some clades within Vitis exhibit similarities in their climatic niches (niche conservatism), while others include species with notably different climatic niches (niche divergence). Additionally, we identify novel geographic locations where some species could potentially flourish. These data provide valuable insights into the abiotic environments occupied by natural populations of North American grapevines and may be useful in the development of rootstock genotypes to suit specific climates now and in the future.