Wine Market Projections and Shares in the U. S. Wine Market

Abstract

Factor analysis was made to ascertain the relative importance of the various variables in the socio-economic profile of the wine consumer. Per capita income proved so strongly related to wine consumption that it sufficed in forecasting the U. S. market potential for all wine and U. S.-produced table wine. The consumption of all wine and U.S.-produced table wine was projected on an individual-state basis and aggregated to forecast the total U. S. wine market in 1980 and 1990. Historical marketshares data on sources of wine were extrapolated to estimate the relative wine market shares in 1980. The estimates of relative market shares were combined with the projected consumption to estimate the absolute market shares. The projected 1980 market for U.S.-produced table wines was 321.1 million gallons and 467.1 million gallons for all wine. If present trends in market shares for all wine continue, California's share will be 66.8%. Another 15.5% will come from states besides California. Imports are expected to increase their relative market share to 17.7%.